NB Power Solar Billing Case Study

Executive Summary

Annual modeled costs are $3,507.51 without solar, $971.43 under current net metering, and $2,540.84 under the proposed net billing plan. That means $1,569.41 in annual solar savings are lost compared with the current billing structure.

Why the Proposed 2027 Solar Rules Change Everything

If approved by the Energy and Utilities Board, NB Power's proposed April 2027 changes would fundamentally shift how solar savings are calculated. A system that saves money today may not remain financially viable under the new rules.

1. Energy Banking vs. Financial Banking

Under today's rules, homeowners bank physical energy. If 100 kWh are exported to the grid in July, 100 kWh can be used later against winter imports. Under the proposed system, customers would bank dollars instead of energy: grid imports are billed at about 9.22 cents/kWh, while exported solar is credited at about 6.77 cents/kWh.

2. The Peak Demand Charge

NB Power is proposing a residential demand charge of about $13 per kilowatt, based on the highest measured peak during the applicable demand window in the billing month. If major household loads happen at the same time, this new charge can absorb the financial solar credits generated during the month.

3. No Practical Rollover for Winter

Monthly demand charges and standard service fees can consume solar credits during sunny months. By winter, when heating imports rise and solar output falls, the financial credit bank may provide little protection compared with the current 1:1 energy bank.

The EV Charging Trap

One cloudy March morning, a household with a normal 10 kW monthly peak could plug in a Level 2 electric vehicle charger drawing about 10 kW for one full hour. If the home was already drawing about 10 kW from the grid, that one event could set the monthly peak at 20 kW.

The extra 10 kW would add $130 before tax, or $149.50 with 15% HST. Under today's residential energy billing, the same 10 kWh of electricity would cost roughly $1.80. The issue is not that the electricity itself costs $149.50; the issue is that one full-hour event can set the monthly demand charge.

Under the proposed net billing rules, that $149.50 demand impact would wipe out the credit value of about 2,208 kWh of exported solar energy, calculated as $149.50 divided by $0.0677 per kWh.

December Winter Billing Divergence

December shows how the current and proposed systems diverge during winter. Under current 1:1 net metering, high winter heating imports are offset by accumulated summer solar credits. Under the proposed tariff, all winter imports are billed at the proposed energy rate, winter solar exports are credited at the lower avoided-cost rate, and the household also faces a monthly peak demand charge.

This creates a near-total loss of the winter solar benefit: the family must pay cash for winter imports while receiving a much smaller credit for winter exports.

Financial Verdict

The proposed tariff does not simply reduce the value of solar generation. It changes how homeowners are compensated for the energy they produce by discounting exports, replacing 1:1 energy banking with a devalued financial bank, and adding demand charges that solar often cannot avoid during winter morning and evening peaks.

• Current net metering annual cost: $971.43.
• Proposed net billing annual cost: $2,540.84.
• Standard annual cost without solar: $3,507.51.
• Annual savings lost under the proposed plan: $1,569.41.
• Modeled solar yield: 15,775.45 kWh/year.

Based on actual invoices, invoice imports, portal gross exports, and hourly peak data, the proposed tariff does not merely reduce the value of residential solar. It largely eliminates the economic rationale for installing it in New Brunswick.

A Working Compromise

The concern is not gross import/export billing by itself. The problem is the combination of a discounted export credit and a full residential demand charge that solar generation cannot reliably avoid, especially during winter peaks.

A workable compromise would keep the proposed 9.22 cents/kWh import price, adjust the solar export credit from 6.77 cents/kWh to about 7.42 cents/kWh, and remove the residential solar demand surcharge. If NB Power requires a peak signal, a fair fallback would apply the $13/kW demand charge only above a 10 kW monthly exemption.

This approach would let NB Power move toward a more cost-based tariff while preserving the economic viability of current and future residential solar installations.

Étude de cas solaire résidentiel Énergie NB

Cette analyse compare la facturation nette actuelle d'Énergie NB avec le tarif de facturation nette proposé pour 2027, à partir d'un système solaire résidentiel réel de 16,4 kW installé en 2024 au Nouveau-Brunswick.

Les données comprennent les factures réelles, les importations des factures, les exportations brutes du portail, les pointes horaires et la production solaire de juin 2025 à mai 2026.

Le modèle indique que le tarif proposé ferait passer la période de récupération d'environ 12,4 ans à environ 32,4 ans. Le problème principal est la combinaison d'un crédit d'exportation réduit, d'une banque financière dévalorisée et d'un frais de puissance résidentiel que la production solaire ne peut pas compenser lors des pointes hivernales.